By Evan Ellis / November 8, 2020
International Affairs Academy
Document of the Day
Free Professional Development
In an effort to explore new priorities, lets move our attention to South America, specifically Peru. Evan Ellis wrote the following yesterday.
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With the beginning of November 2020, Peru’s Congress
returned from a week of recess and member consultation
with constituencies and voted to deliberate on removing
President Martin Vizcarra over corruption charges, to the full body.In the
coming weeks, in a process not unlike impeachment in the United States,
Peru’s Congress will summon the president to respond to corruption
charges, and in the unlikely case that it achieves the required 2/3 majority
(87 votes), could remove him from office. The process will be the second
time in little more than two months that Congress has attempted to
remove Vizcarra—albeit on two completely separate charges—and the
culmination of a very bad year for the president and the nation.
If President Vizcarra, after leaving office, is formally charged for one or
more of the serious crimes for which he is currently being investigated, he
would be the sixth Peruvian president since 2000 to suffer that fate. Even
as Peru’s political crisis plays out, the country, which is strategically
important for its political and economic weight, geographic position as a
gateway to Asia, and as a source of both narcotics and illegal mining
products, is also suffering unprecedented health and socioeconomic stress
from the COVID-19 pandemic.It is also undergoing important
transformations in its criminal economy, and facing a potentially
significant expansion of the economic footprint and associated influence
of the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
This article is the first in a three-part series examining the
multidimensional and mutually reinforcing challenges facing Peru. The
present article examines the political crisis and prospects for the 2021
elections. The second will examine Peru’s security challenges and the
response of its government. The third will examine the advance of the PRC
and its implications for the country and the region.
Background
President Vizcarra’s current
predicament is ironic given his path
to office and his high popularity just a
year ago. He was widely perceived as
an honest leader, valiantly and
stubbornly struggling against vested
interests in Peruvian politics.
Vizcarra became president in March
2018 when his predecessor, Pedro
Pablo Kuczynski, resigned over
corruption allegations. When the
politically fractured Peruvian
Congress—seen as beholden to special interests—tried to block
consideration of reforms he was proposing, Vizcarra exercised his (then
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uncertain) constitutional right to dissolve Congress and call for new
elections. President Vizcarra’s frontal challenge to a congress seen as
representing the worst of corruption and special interests in Peruvian
politics, made him one of the most positively viewed presidents in the
region, reaching an unprecedented 82 percent popular approval in October
2019.
With a favorable ruling by Peru’s constitutional court and the tacit backing
of the military Vizcarra prevailed.In January 2020, Peru elected a new
(even more fragmented) congress, none of whose members had
participated in the prior, and in which the previously most powerful block,
Fuerza Popular, tied to exiled Peruvian President Alberto Fujimori and his
presidential candidate daughter Keiko, were greatly reduced.
Then COVID-19 hit.
Vizcarra’s response to the pandemic through an early, stringent lockdown
of the country, coupled with a significant assistance package to help the
most vulnerable, was heralded as good leadership at the time, yet didn’t
work. Peru’s economic and social structure, with public markets and a
large informal sector centered on close human interaction, undercut
government efforts to limit the spread of the virus. The contagion was
compounded by the government’s costly commitment to purchase USD
$267 million in “quick tests”from Orient Gene Biotech and other Chinese
companies. The high rate of false negative results of the tests, many of
which were not even certified by the Chinese government, led many who
had contracted the virus to believe otherwise, allowing them to
unknowingly contaminate others.
Weaknesses in Peru’s healthcare system, compounded by delays in
acquiring needed medical equipment, such as ventilators from China,
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contributed to the nation having the world’s highest per capita COVID-19
fatality rate, 105.35 deaths/100,000 people.
Contributing to the appearance of management, in July 2020, in the
middle of the pandemic, President Vizcarra was forced to reshuffle his
cabinet. As the virus continued to spread despite the lockdown, President
Vizcarra’s measures to control it caused the adverse health impacts of the
disease to be compounded by severe economic contraction and particular
hardship among small businesses and in the informal sector, 71 percent of
the Peruvian economy. By November 2020, Peru had over 890,000 cases of
COVID-19 and more than 34,000 deaths from the virus, plus a GDP that
contracted 30.2 percent in the second quarter—among the worst in the
region, although the situation currently appears to be improving.
In the context of discontent over President Vizcarra’s handling of the
pandemic, the emergence of allegations of corruption against him in
September 2020 substantially undercut his public image as an “honest
politician,” one of his core pillars of support among a population weary
from the effects of COVID-19, as well as the seemingly ubiquitous
corruption and dysfunctionality elsewhere in Peruvian politics.
In September 2020, audio recordings became public capturing President
Vizcarra in a conversation with the Secretary of the Presidency Karem
Roca and the Administrator of the Presidential Palace Mirian Morales over
how to handle an investigation by the Attorney General’s office regarding
his role in the hiring of his friend, a relatively unknown singer named
Richard “Swing” Cisneros, by the Ministry of Culture for a series of
motivational talks for which Cisneros was paid USD $44,000. The
Peruvian Congress voted to conduct a process calling the President
Vizcarra before the body to answer for his actions.
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An attempt by the President of Congress, Manuel Merino Lama, to
coordinate with the Peruvian military on that case generated a negative
reaction both within the public, and within the military, which in the
Peruvian system is oriented to see the president as its Commander in
Chief. Reciprocally, the appearance of senior Peruvian military officials in
photos with the president during the scandal, were perceived in some
quarters as tacit military support for the president’s position.
Congress deliberated and voted on removing President Vizcarra for “moral
incapacity,” a charge normally reserved for situations such as insanity.
Debate arose over whether the charge could be used to remove a president
over corruption, and “how corrupt” a president had to be for the statute to
apply (e.g. could a president be removed for marital infidelity).In the end,
key blocks in Congress, including Fuerza Popular, whose maneuverings
against the president backfired in 2019, chose not to vote against him, and
the motion failed to achieve the 2/3 majority required for impeachment.
The second set of corruption charges to emerge against President Vizcarra,
which came to light in October, are more serious. They include first-hand
testimony from persons alleging that they personally gave the president
USD$280,000 in bribes in order to win construction contracts while he
was governor of the Department of Moquegua from 2013-2014. Further
allegations emerged that Vizcarra had also accepted bribes as Minister of
Construction from 2016-2017.
The case quickly became complicated by apparent political maneuverings
by multiple institutions. Publications of recorded conversations between
jailed radical Peruvian politician Antaruo Humala and members of his
party (which has supported Vizcarra’s impeachment) gave the impression
that the party could use its vote against Vizcarra to pressure for Humala’s
release (not unlike Fuerza Popular’s use of its prior position against the
president to press for the pardon of Alberto Fujimori). Reciprocally, for
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some, the government’s plans to move Humala to a colder, less accessible
jail, suggested reciprocity for his party’s support of the investigation.
Creating even more political tension, Peru’s cabinet chief and retired
General Walter Matos generated controversy when he suggested that the
Armed Forces would not tolerate improper congressional action to remove
the president. The comment tied into sensitivities over a perceived
support by the Armed Forces for the president, prompting a motion and
calls in the Congress to bring the Matos before the body to account for his
statements.
Finally, the decision by Prosecutor General Daniel Soria not to assign
investigation of the cases to anti-corruption prosecutor Amado Enco, but
instead to Silvana Carrión, prompted Enco’s resignation, giving the
impression that the Vizcarra government was attempting to shape the
outcome of the case.
With widespread discontent over the president’s handling of COVID-19,
and the corruption scandals seriously undercutting his image as an honest
politician, by November 2020 President Vizcarra’s approval rating had
fallen to 22 percent.
Prospects for the Current Crisis
Vizcarra’s survival until the end of his term in July 2021 has less to do with
the substance of the constitutional and criminal challenges raised against
him, than whether Congress believes the stability and well-being of the
country—and their respective parties’ political interests—are better served
by keeping him in office whilst navigating the pandemic. Besides, elections
to choose his successor are just five months away.
Political parties, such as Fuerza Popular, are calculating whether their
support for removing the president will be seen as opportunistic, and hurt
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them at the polls, or as a matter of principle, and help them.
Parties who believe they will do well in the upcoming elections, fear that
ousting Vizcarra and elevating parliamentary head Mario Merino Lama to
the presidency, would set the stage to allow him to postpone elections until
the pandemic is brought under control giving himself a full, four-year term
in office.Indeed, the current congress has already proposed returning the
body to a two house structure,(despite the public’s rejection in a 2018
referendum). The change would circumvent the prohibition against
running for reelection since the congress would then technically be
seeking a term in a different legislative body.
Assuming the first round of Peru’s national elections go forward in April
2021 as scheduled, virtually anything could happen as the parties and their
“pre-candidates”formally define their positions this month. Although
there has been wide variation across polling organizations, as of November
2020 there were 33 “precandidatos”for the presidency. None had
consistent support from more than 15 percent of the population suggesting
that the presidential election will go to an unpredictable second round
runoff in June.
Respected Peruvian economist Hernando de Soto is an early favorite, yet
his choice to run as candidate of Avanza Pais, which is aligned with the
radical nationalist Union por el Peru party of Antaruo Humala, and a
meeting with Jorge Paredes, a former congressman affiliated with the
Sendero Luminoso (terrorist) affiliated social movement has raised
questions about his judgement.
Leftist leader Veronika Mendoza, who almost made it to the final round of
balloting in the prior presidential election, is the leading contender among
leftist candidates, although others such as Marco Arana, pre-candidate of
Frente Amplio, divide the left vote.
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Former presidential contender Keiko Fujimori is another potentially
significant candidate, and has declared her intention to be back in
Peruvian politics “100 percent.” However, she is currently under
investigation by the Peruvian Attorney General’s office, and under
Peruvian law, she will be excluded from the race if she is formally charged
with wrongdoing.
Georges Forsythe, the young mayor of La Victoria, has emerged as a dark
horse candidate. His charisma and effective use of social media has even
dominated some polls. However, he appears to be losing momentum as his
inexperience on the national stage has become evident in public
engagements.
Daniel Urresti, a former Army General who served as Interior Minister
under Peruvian President Ollanta Humala, and who ran unsuccessfully for
president in 2016, is another leading figure. He has charisma, name
recognition, and his focus on security resonates among Peruvians at a time
of unprecedented difficulty, political chaos, and criminal activity.
However, his own past is clouded by accusations of serious human rights
violations and it is unclear whether he can attract a broad enough support
base which hampered his 2016 candidacy.
If there is a saving grace for Peruvian political stability, it is that the
fragmentation of the Peruvian left, and weak connection between its
parties and the people, decrease the likelihood of mass mobilizations,
which have generated political instability in Ecuador, Chile and Colombia.
Even with the enormous suffering and economic contraction produced by
the pandemic, and constitutionally questionable moves by the Peruvian
government mass demonstrations appear unlikely.
The next article in this series will examine those growing challenges and
the government’s response to date.
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Please join the conversation on Peru here: https://www.biedsociety.com/forum/america/south-america
Who do you know that is interested in South America? We want to meet them.
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